YOU CAN DRAG A RINO TO WATER BUT YOU CAN'T MAKE HER DRINK

DeDe Won't Drink... She Won't Even Talk About Drinking...

One thing we know for certain is that Scozzafava isn't exactly proud to be a Republican. She doesn't even vote like a Republican. She won't say that she won't run as a Democrat. She might just as well attend both the Republican and Democratic County Committee interviews to see which party would make her their frontrunner. We can't say we blame her for it. We see the wisdom in it.

According to the Watertown newspaper, "Possible strong Republican contenders include Mr. Barclay and Assemblywoman Dierdre K. Scozzafava, who has been fighting rumors she is considering switching parties under pressure from organized labor, with the Obama administration playing a role in the background." 

How is DeDe fighting the rumors? Has she been public about it anywhere? All the news claims she won't give a definitive answer one way or another. 

Second, it is not hard to believe Obama and his team would be playing around in the background.  The New York Daily News broke a story today that Rahm Emanuel tried to persuade Long Island Representative Peter King an ambassadorship to Ireland.  The story went on to say Rep. King, "still has no doubt that Obama's top aide [Rahm Emanuel] would target his House seat if the opportunity arose." 

Who is to say that the White House Chief of Staff hasn't talked to big labor in New York, the DCCC, or even Scozzafava herself about the prospect of running as a Democrat.  Or maybe Emanuel just dragged a RINO to the Democratic pond, but couldn't make her drink the water. We learned today that he couldn't get King to drink our Irish whisky.

But the Mayor of Watertown also sees it another way.  According to someone who forwarded his blog to our coalition, "The prospects for Diedre Scozzafava running for Congress still appear dim to me, but a key GOP insider tells me there is still strong support for her candidacy among the country chairs in the 11 county 23rd CD. Under a weighted voting system, I am told the chairs in Oswego, Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties would carry the day.  Good news for DeDe." We agree with that mayor that Scozzafava would be a poor candidate for the Republicans to put up. Although if McHugh's replacement is Scozzafava it is, for all intents and purposes, still a victory for us because we will have her on all of our key issues from card check, to health care, to taxes, social issues, and who knows what else. 

Still, one has to wonder how it would look if DeDe were to only garner 3 of 11 GOP county chairs?  If 8 county chairs voice a strong opposition to DeDe would she even be credible within her own party to make it to the finish line this fall? Whichever party she runs with we hope she wins. [On a side note it would be interesting to see how the Oswego chair votes if Assemblyman Will Barclay decides to get in the game. That would be a nightmare for DeDe. Does anyone know if the county chairs votes will be made public?]

So what do we make of the rumors that DeDe is exploring the option of attending the Democratic meetings to test the waters? Here is what we have gathered. The DCCC has already announced that they think "the district is winnable with the right candidate... Right now our focus is on working with local Democrats to recruit a strong candidate." The language is so interesting in that quote, "winnable with the right candidate... working with local Democrats to recruit a strong candidate." 

The drum beat continues and two serious questions remain: 

1) Have the DNC, the DCCC, Rep. Steve Israel (tasked with recruiting Democratic candidates for the US House), White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, our local Democratic county chairs, local labor chambers, or even Obama himself reached out to DeDe? That might be all she is waiting for before she drinks the water. 

2) Why is Scozzafava so shy with the media about the prospect of running as a Democrat? One thing is for certain, we know Emanuel isn't afraid to drag the RINOs to their pond. Perhaps Emanuel's master strategy all along is to have it both ways. Support another Democrat to win the district, or in the event that Scozzafava wins as a Republican just twist her huff on important policy to make Obama's agenda look like it has bipartisan support. Whatever Emanuel's master plan is we support it and have full confidence in him. It's a win-win situation anyway you look at it.

STATE AND NATIONAL ATTENTION & THREATS OF A LAWSUIT

Draft Dede Effort Gains Major Traction In Two Stories

We told you it was gun'na be HUGE.

Okay so about half of our traffic stops to our unofficial Draft DeDe As a Democrat for Congress site yesterday were from these two major stories (see them below) speculating on whether or not Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava would run as a Democrat in the NY-23rd to replace Representative John McHugh. The Democratic National Committee even made a visit to our site and stayed for awhile. Hopefully they are going to consider some of the solid arguments we have made in why they should aggressively recruit DeDe to run with our party for this election. Now one of the most interesting things about this endeavor is that you learn a lot of new things along the way. For example, one of the stories that picked up on our effort provided some other interesting details on Scozzafava's husband. Apparently he is some kind of big union guy with the AFL-CIO (on a side note that made me wonder if Scozzafava supports Obama's card-check legislation and whether they could be a big fundraising base for her along with Planned Parenthood). Did anyone else know that? Maybe she is more solid on our economic issues than we thought as well (more on that later).

Anyways, we regret to admit that we have not yet gotten Scozzafava completely on our side yet, but she still might and we have hope. According to some staffers in Albany we have been in contact with, the news of this political development just hit and is still fresh. There are a lot of people speculating on a lot of different things going on in the State House so we might just have to sit tight and see how some things play out.

On a positive note Scozzafava has not yet released a statement denying that she would run as a Democrat so our guess is that she is still seriously considering it, especially since the Democratic field has just thinned a little more as the Syracuse Post-Standard reported today that Sen. David Valesky, D-Oneida announced he would not be getting into the race to replace McHugh. And until DeDe asks us to stop our efforts we will continue to push our grassroots out to her, encouraging her to come over to the side where she can really make a difference and survive redistricting in 2012. It seems to us that each day Scozzafava waits before announcing which party she would run with, it is another good day for us because it means she is frustrating the Republican Party just that much longer. Only time will tell, but the clock is ticking and it is in our favor.

Now back to the major stories that are driving this story in the North Country.

Here is the first from the biggest political news site in New York State called Politickerny.com.

Jimmy Vielkind writes in his piece, Scozzafava as a Democrat for Congress? that, "Certain factions of the Republican party think Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava is too liberal to run for the congressional seat being vacated by John McHugh. But what about running as a member of the other party? As one well-connected Democrat argued to me, 'It's an obvious way to go. She's a moderate, well-liked and known person. It will be interesting to see what the Republicans do with her.' She has not, in the past, been approved by the Republican Party. In 2008, she sought to run for the State Senate seat vacated by Jim Wright, but party elders backed her more conservative colleague Will Barclay, who eventually lost to then-assemblyman Darrell Aubertine. Now, all three are once again mentioned as replacements for McHugh. Barely an hour had passed before Jim Kelly, a conservative campaign consultant who lives on the edge of the district, sent along an email with 'the liberal crap' about Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava. It made reference to her vote to legalize same-sex marriage and a 2005 pledge to 'insure the rights of all women in New York State to control their own reproductive lives, including the right to safe, legal abortion.' All of which would be fine, presumably, with the Democratic Party. Someone has gone to the trouble of setting up a a web site encouraging party leaders to 'draft Dede.' Given some of her positions and strong ties to labor--her husband, Ron McDougall, is the president of the local Central Labor Council--it's not so far-fetched that she would run as a Democrat, particularly if Aubertine opts not to. (He's officially still weighing his options.) Scozzafava did not immediately return calls seeking comment."

And here is the second from a major national political news site called the National Journal.

The Journal reports in Don't Go Out Without Your DeDe? that, "While it's still very early in the process, the name that pops out of the large GOP field is Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava (R). Her legislative district lies completely within the boundaries of the CD, and she ran unopposed in '08 after trouncing a Dem opponent in '06. Still, she may have a few problems among the GOP faithful. Scozzafava's a moderate that voted for the recent gay marriage bill that came through the legislature. In fact, she's one of the few GOPers in NY that's also been endorsed by the liberal Working Families Party (she earned their line in '08). Some Dems have even begun a campaign to draft [that is us and it is awesome they picked up on us somehow] her to run as a Dem. All of this would certainly help her grab moderate support, but it would also jeopardize the right flank, too. Do you think the Conservative Party would endorse her? If not, she'd face the likelihood of facing that party's candidate in the general as well."

By the way, kudos to McHugh for testing the waters on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." What an important item for the Obama Administration to get done this year. I know we should be able to get that done with bipartisan support in the Administration and with a Democratic Congress.

We thought those pieces were great, along with the news of McHugh's consideration on DADT. We look forward to more discussion about NY-23 online and in the print/TV/radio media. We want our friends and foes alike to know that this draft effort is really our honest intention to have a robust and open debate about the future of our district without the nuts in the right wing Conservative Party and the southern Republicans interfering too much. Rumor has it that they are trying to talk Dede into filing a lawsuit against our coalition if she is going to get their support (it's the kind of quid-pro-quo dealings that you normally see in Chicago not the North Country). We mean what ever happened to freedom of speech anyways? Maybe that can be a post for another blog on another day -- is the GOP trying to stifle and undermine free speech?

But we have to reiterate it again for those out there who don't understand, "We are still a free country that allows free speech so 'Thank Goodness for the Freedom of Speech.'" But honestly, who could ever try to deny such a fundamental thing in our great country? We know for one that DeDe would never try to stifle a fair, open, and honest debate. After all, she is going to be on our team. We look forward to your e-mails to draftdede@gmail.com and twitter comments @draftdedeny. Thanks team and stay true to our worthy cause!

BILLY FUCILLO SAYS: “IT IS GUN’NA BE HUGE!!!”

HUGE MOMENTUM & NATIONAL JOURNAL RECOGNIZES OUR EFFORT

Picking up Dede Scozzafava to run on the Democratic line to replace Representative John McHugh in the NY-23^rd would be the equivalent to the Calgary Flames picking up Brett Hull in the sixth round, as the 117th overall pick of the NHL Draft. It would be really, totally HUGE, maybe even the Billy Fucillo Auto Mall kind of HUGE!!!

To bad for the Flames they traded Hull, because he never developed a good relationship with Flames coach Terry Crisp. “The Golden Brett” later went on to become a Hall-of-Famer and the third all-time leading goal scorer in NHL history. We only refer to the Flames-Hull analogy, not to rehash the Flames poor decision-making, but because: 1) something can be learned from this situation and it can be applied to the NY-23^rd, 2) hockey is awesome and the sport of choice for most reasonable souls in the district so we hope people will be able relate to said analogy, and 3) because, again, it just fits so well with the current dynamic we have been talking about in the NY-23^rd all week (and I love hockey).

So here we go – a key lesson can be learned from the Flames mistake of passing on Hull. The Flames underestimated how inexplicably HUGE Brett Hull’s career would turn out to be, and they didn’t think of him as a typical player (he was only 5’10’’) and because of their natural bias. Old Flames fans show visual signs of deep regret and remorse when they look back and realize that Hull had actually scored over 100 goals in less than 60 games in the minors. Here is a lesson that every DCCC staffer and DNC operative working on candidate recruitment should never forget – never underestimate how good some people really are until you find out more about them (it’s a common mistake in sports, life, and yes, politics).

Now that my hockey lesson is out of the way I want to follow back to the discussion of poaching Dede, the term one shame of a blog used in describing our effort, from the dying party from the South. It comes down to this –politics is about winning and we are “poaching” Scozzafava for both her own good and for ours. The funny thing is we have a natural bias against Dede because she has an R at the end of her name (she probably doesn’t even know why she has an R at the end of her name, but she always had it there so it made sense after awhile). We recognize this, but we are also open-minded and looking into the facts of the situation, looking to see where Scozzafava is on the issues. And if you get to know Dede in a personal way or a political way, as some of our team has, you learn fairly quickly that she is a very kind and compassionate woman, even going back before her time as Mayor of Gouverneur. She is truly an independent thinker with a progressive philosophy. But not only that, once you get to know Scozzafava just a little bit it is sometimes hard to remember she has an R at the end of her name when she is in Albany. That is why we like her.

From a party prospective: We smell blood and need to strike, and do it now in this special election. Elections have consequences and for the Republican Party that is going to mean it will be closing its doors for business in virtually the entire Northeast. Obama’s team has done an incredible job in taking over NY-20 this year, trying to get Senator Judd Gregg out of New Hampshire, and pushing Arlen Specter off the Republican cliff in the Keystone State. Now he has given us this opportunity in NY-23. We must follow Obama’s lead and change the way we do things, take advantage the confusion present in the situation and fill the political vacuum.

As most of you have followed the race know, there are only three Republicans with federal elective positions left from New York: Rep. Peter King from Long Island, Rep. Chris Lee from Buffalo, and Rep. John McHugh from just south of Canada. King may run for US Senate this cycle (if he does we look forward to seeing his political career end in an embarrassing 70-30% defeat). Lee was a self-financer who barely pulled off victory by the skin of his teeth. If we keep the State Senate we could always redistrict him into permanent irrelevance. We all know now that McHugh will be history in short notice and quite frankly we can use his seat to divide and conquer the GOP once and for assuming we pick the right candidate for the job, Dede Scozzafava.

So when thinking about the Flames-Hull analogy, also think of the DNC-Scozzafava connection. DNC, you want Scozzafava and you need her; please don’t lose her. The DNC and the New York Democratic Party cannot let this opportunity slide away, not when we know she would mean the death-knoll to the Republican Party, and that she would add another voice of reason to our ranks in the US Congress. Whether your motivation and desire is to see our district actually have a place on the map with a competent representative who can get things done with the party in charge, or whether you favor a liberal-progressive philosophical ideology, you cannot get any better than Dede Scozzafava. And compared to Aubertine she is better on our issues. Consider the Hotline, a national political update site, report that said, “Aubertine is a conservative Dem who is against gay marriage and is ‘well-versed’ in rural issues (he's a dairy farmer)” (Benjamin, “Daily Politics,” New York Daily News, 6/2).

From Dede’s prospective: We admit, she is going to need some more cover before this move happens. Which means we need to keep building support both politically and otherwise. We can tell you that we know Scozzafava has been considering a few things on this end according to close allies of hers. First they say that she is very, very nervous about not getting the conservative party endorsement and she thinks it could be much tougher to win the GOP nomination and then the special election without their help and endorsement. The Conservative Party makes up a hardcore base in high-intensity political battles like this one (although the county GOP & DEM leadership teams will likely determine their respective nominees behind closed doors). Still, there is probably some truth to Dede’s fear that siphoning conservative support could doom her chances.  The Hotline also reported that the possibility of the CD "disappearing" following 2012 redistricting "doesn't scare her, either.”… But the process "might break against" her, as she "supports same-sex marriage, a position that might cause" GOP officials to "balk" and would likely cost her the Conservative Party line (Vielkind, PolitickerNY, 6/2).

This line of reasoning has Scozzafava in a real tizzy because even if she were to 1) miraculously win the GOP nomination, then 2) win the special election, and then 3) survive redistricting in 2012, she would still have 4) major headaches (find more on the redistricting debate here). For one, Scozzafava would face an incredible onslaught of Republicans trying to “eat their own” moderates on the national level. The daily criticism from the hardcore fringe right both locally and nationally would take every opportunity and stop at nothing to mock Scozzafava to the point where we would all be tone deaf. For evidence look to see how Sen. Susan Collins, Sen. Olympia Snowe, former Sen. Lincoln Chaffee, and former Republican (now Democrat) Sen. Arlen Specter were treated by their party in recent times. We have also heard from Dede’s people that “she is nervous that national Republicans would try to strong arm her on their key votes, limiting her independence and conscience on votes. Does Dede really want to be a pawn of a party retreating to the South, or does she want to make a difference and vote her conscience,” which is the right thing for her to do personally and for the constituents in the 23^rd.

Hindsight is 20-20, so they say. Hindsight says the Flames should have never, ever traded what would have been their franchise player, Brett Hull. Hull was a guy who could have really put Calgary on the map, instead they missed their opportunity and sometimes you only get one shot at it. Democrats and Dede both have a choice to make with their one shot. One thing is for certain about the decisions they both will make: They are gun’na be HUUUUUUUUGGGGGE!