INDEPENDENCE LINE GOES TO THE DEMOCRATS IN NY-23

~13K Votes for the Taking if DeDe Wants Them

The AP reported today that the “Independence Party pledges to support Democrat in possible race for McHugh's 23rd District seat.”

That was the title. It goes on, “The New York Independence Party is pledging to support a Democrat in the special election for the 23rd Congressional District long held by Republican Rep. John McHugh. Independence Party Chairman Frank MacKay tells The Associated Press his influential party will support Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine if he decides to run for the seat representing northern New York. Aubertine is considering a run if McHugh wins confirmation to become Democratic President Barack Obama's secretary of the Army. The Independence Party was important in Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy's narrow victory in a special election in March for the 20th Congressional District, another GOP-dominated Upstate district.”

First, Aubertine likely won’t run. Even if he does, DeDe is still a better Democratic candidate for multiple reasons described at great length on this blog. What this story sounds like to us is another incredible incentive for DeDe to come our way.

If you math is right that would mean almost 13K votes for DeDe right out of the gate. If she ran as a Democrat she would likely also garner supporting from the Working Family line which is close to another 6K. After being named a “non-starter” by the Conservative Party line which holds 9K votes that has to make her decision that much easier. If she runs as a moderate Republican she will surely lose, especially if a third candidate were to run on the Conservative line.

The Watertown Daily Times and some other local papers have been trolling through our site (presumable to dig up some additional research on an upcoming story). Maybe that is when we will find out that laying out the case online was worth all the trouble. However, it has been no trouble at all. We are here to help and support DeDe to make the right decision. At this point we would like to offer a toast: “To victory this fall with DeDe on the Democratic ticket.”

PS – Our public poll on the left hand column is almost finished so if you haven’t had a chance please let us know whether you think DeDe should run as a Democrat. Results will be posted tomorrow.

SCOZZAFAVA IS RADIO SILENT

That means we are gaining traction in our efforts

The folks at the Swing State Project just CRUSHED the nail on its head with a sludge-hammer when they said, "both the National Journal and PolitickerNY have both tried to get Scozzafava to verify if she's considering a party switch, and both outlets received nothing but radio silence from her camp. If she wasn't considering such a move, why wouldn't she swat down the rumors immediately?"

As if the pressure wasn't building enough we have to refer to yet the third National Journal piece in less than a week (and linked above) that states, "Scozzafava's vote for the gay marriage bill has angered some conservatives who were already dubious of her record, including NY Conservative chair Mike Long, who told us the vote is a "non-starter" for his party's endorsement. That would be a blow to any GOPer, as the Conservative line brought John McHugh (R) over 9K votes in '08. (And as we saw in neighboring NY-20, every vote counts)."

And from some of the comments in our last post we just learned that all of DeDe's money from 2000-present has come from liberal PAC's, including thousands from pro-gay and pro-choice groups, and tons of unions (thanks to her husband Ron McDougall who is the president of the local Central Labor Council). DeDe has a limited fundraising base from individual contributors who raised her around $65,000 over the last 9 years.

After our poll results are finished we are considering undertaking a telemarketing campaign to really pressure DeDe to come to our side (where her natural fundraising base is, not to mention the folks who agree with her on politically) before Rep. McHugh's Senate confirmation hearings. Check back often.

CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN

Do You Want to Help Draft Dede And Make a Difference? Here is how.

Due to lots of e-mail asking, "how can I help Draft Dede As a Dem?" we thought we would offer a brief blog tutorial on ways you can be of assistance to our grassroots effort to draft Dede as a Democrat. We will keep this short and sweet so we can get to work on the specifics.

First and most importantly, you can e-mail your friends, family, and neighbors and tell them to get educated on the race for NY-23. A good place to start would be to e-mail our blog site to your entire e-mail address book. It is important for people to visit our blog often, and to comment in the section below each blog posting so we can have a community discussion on ideas and thoughts out there in the North Country. Also feel free to e-mail us with your own ideas!

Second, you can vote in our open public poll that can be found on the left hand side of the screen. As you can see a huge majority of voters have indicated already that they would like to see Dede Scozzafava run as a Democrat. Be a patriot, get active, and vote in our online poll. There are only two days left in this poll, so if you have already voted be patient and we will have a new poll up on another matter shortly. (Quick note: to the Democratic National Committee staffers and various visitors from the NYS Assembly & Senate, please feel free to vote in our poll; thanks for dropping by and please know that our online poll is there for you too).

Third, if you are a blogger or on online networker you can post a blog on your own site with your thoughts on our draft effort. If you do, please consider linking to our site. We invite all bloggers from the right and the left of the political spectrum to be active. We want to spread awareness of Dede in the online community and this is a great way to do it. If you are on twitter please also consider joining our Draft Dede as a Democrat Twitter page @draftdedeny. These are the best ways to be of help in this critical moment.

We are confident that our draft effort is becoming viral on the world wide web and you can help facilitate that process. Thank you all for visiting and we will likely do another post with more ideas on ways you can help our effort. We appreciate all of your support so we can change this district.

STATE AND NATIONAL ATTENTION & THREATS OF A LAWSUIT

Draft Dede Effort Gains Major Traction In Two Stories

We told you it was gun'na be HUGE.

Okay so about half of our traffic stops to our unofficial Draft DeDe As a Democrat for Congress site yesterday were from these two major stories (see them below) speculating on whether or not Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava would run as a Democrat in the NY-23rd to replace Representative John McHugh. The Democratic National Committee even made a visit to our site and stayed for awhile. Hopefully they are going to consider some of the solid arguments we have made in why they should aggressively recruit DeDe to run with our party for this election. Now one of the most interesting things about this endeavor is that you learn a lot of new things along the way. For example, one of the stories that picked up on our effort provided some other interesting details on Scozzafava's husband. Apparently he is some kind of big union guy with the AFL-CIO (on a side note that made me wonder if Scozzafava supports Obama's card-check legislation and whether they could be a big fundraising base for her along with Planned Parenthood). Did anyone else know that? Maybe she is more solid on our economic issues than we thought as well (more on that later).

Anyways, we regret to admit that we have not yet gotten Scozzafava completely on our side yet, but she still might and we have hope. According to some staffers in Albany we have been in contact with, the news of this political development just hit and is still fresh. There are a lot of people speculating on a lot of different things going on in the State House so we might just have to sit tight and see how some things play out.

On a positive note Scozzafava has not yet released a statement denying that she would run as a Democrat so our guess is that she is still seriously considering it, especially since the Democratic field has just thinned a little more as the Syracuse Post-Standard reported today that Sen. David Valesky, D-Oneida announced he would not be getting into the race to replace McHugh. And until DeDe asks us to stop our efforts we will continue to push our grassroots out to her, encouraging her to come over to the side where she can really make a difference and survive redistricting in 2012. It seems to us that each day Scozzafava waits before announcing which party she would run with, it is another good day for us because it means she is frustrating the Republican Party just that much longer. Only time will tell, but the clock is ticking and it is in our favor.

Now back to the major stories that are driving this story in the North Country.

Here is the first from the biggest political news site in New York State called Politickerny.com.

Jimmy Vielkind writes in his piece, Scozzafava as a Democrat for Congress? that, "Certain factions of the Republican party think Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava is too liberal to run for the congressional seat being vacated by John McHugh. But what about running as a member of the other party? As one well-connected Democrat argued to me, 'It's an obvious way to go. She's a moderate, well-liked and known person. It will be interesting to see what the Republicans do with her.' She has not, in the past, been approved by the Republican Party. In 2008, she sought to run for the State Senate seat vacated by Jim Wright, but party elders backed her more conservative colleague Will Barclay, who eventually lost to then-assemblyman Darrell Aubertine. Now, all three are once again mentioned as replacements for McHugh. Barely an hour had passed before Jim Kelly, a conservative campaign consultant who lives on the edge of the district, sent along an email with 'the liberal crap' about Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava. It made reference to her vote to legalize same-sex marriage and a 2005 pledge to 'insure the rights of all women in New York State to control their own reproductive lives, including the right to safe, legal abortion.' All of which would be fine, presumably, with the Democratic Party. Someone has gone to the trouble of setting up a a web site encouraging party leaders to 'draft Dede.' Given some of her positions and strong ties to labor--her husband, Ron McDougall, is the president of the local Central Labor Council--it's not so far-fetched that she would run as a Democrat, particularly if Aubertine opts not to. (He's officially still weighing his options.) Scozzafava did not immediately return calls seeking comment."

And here is the second from a major national political news site called the National Journal.

The Journal reports in Don't Go Out Without Your DeDe? that, "While it's still very early in the process, the name that pops out of the large GOP field is Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava (R). Her legislative district lies completely within the boundaries of the CD, and she ran unopposed in '08 after trouncing a Dem opponent in '06. Still, she may have a few problems among the GOP faithful. Scozzafava's a moderate that voted for the recent gay marriage bill that came through the legislature. In fact, she's one of the few GOPers in NY that's also been endorsed by the liberal Working Families Party (she earned their line in '08). Some Dems have even begun a campaign to draft [that is us and it is awesome they picked up on us somehow] her to run as a Dem. All of this would certainly help her grab moderate support, but it would also jeopardize the right flank, too. Do you think the Conservative Party would endorse her? If not, she'd face the likelihood of facing that party's candidate in the general as well."

By the way, kudos to McHugh for testing the waters on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." What an important item for the Obama Administration to get done this year. I know we should be able to get that done with bipartisan support in the Administration and with a Democratic Congress.

We thought those pieces were great, along with the news of McHugh's consideration on DADT. We look forward to more discussion about NY-23 online and in the print/TV/radio media. We want our friends and foes alike to know that this draft effort is really our honest intention to have a robust and open debate about the future of our district without the nuts in the right wing Conservative Party and the southern Republicans interfering too much. Rumor has it that they are trying to talk Dede into filing a lawsuit against our coalition if she is going to get their support (it's the kind of quid-pro-quo dealings that you normally see in Chicago not the North Country). We mean what ever happened to freedom of speech anyways? Maybe that can be a post for another blog on another day -- is the GOP trying to stifle and undermine free speech?

But we have to reiterate it again for those out there who don't understand, "We are still a free country that allows free speech so 'Thank Goodness for the Freedom of Speech.'" But honestly, who could ever try to deny such a fundamental thing in our great country? We know for one that DeDe would never try to stifle a fair, open, and honest debate. After all, she is going to be on our team. We look forward to your e-mails to draftdede@gmail.com and twitter comments @draftdedeny. Thanks team and stay true to our worthy cause!

BIRDS OF A FEATHER FLOCK TOGETHER

SCOZZAFAVA HOLDS DEMOCRATIC LINE ON KEY SOCIAL ISSUES

Has Accepted the Margaret Sanger Award and Voted for Same-Sex Marriages

People keep e-mailing into us asking: "If Dede Scozzafava runs as a Democrat will she be a reliable vote on our key social issues? We aren't sure where she is on that key issue." 

Of course, abortion and same-sex marriage are a sort of litmus test in the Democratic Party and so here we are trying to answer the primary question of where Dede Scozzafava is on abortion. Good news for the Democrats on this one though -- from our vantage point this is one of the key reasons why we want Dede Scozzafava to run as a Democrat! We believe she would be good on promoting stem cell research, allowing women to keep having full rights to abortions, and even pro same-sex marriage, not just civil unions (at least she voted for it in the State Assembly). 

Most people don't know this, but one of the frustrations with Darrel Aubertine, even though he is a Democrat, is that he is pro-life and against same-sex marriages. Thanks, but no thanks on those issues Darrel.  

So here is some information on Scozzafava that you might not have known about to prove our point. Hardly anyone knows that Dede Scozzafava has worked with outside progressive groups like the Family Planning Advocates of New York, NARAL, and Planned Parenthood. Furthermore, she was even awarded the Margaret Sanger Award in 2008 and was once on the Board of Planned Parenthood, one of our main Democratic fundraising bases. See her speech accepting the pro-choice award on YouTube and tell me she wouldn't be a reliable vote for abortion advocates.

For those of you who don't know who Margaret Sanger is she was one of the earliest advocates for abortion, eugenics, and massive distribution of contraception during the time of the women's liberation movement. She was quite a controversial figure at the time, but she certainly lines up with our values and our culture today, and more so than Darrel Aubertine so we think it is a testament to Scozzafava for being awarded such an honor from such great organization in our progressive movement (even though she accepted it as a Republican). You'll hear the far right fringe go off on Sanger sympathizers from time to time; they did it to Hillary Clinton on multiple occasions this year. In the end we are confident that Scozzafava will not try to distance herself from her views on abortion or Margaret Sanger. The people on the right will try to say that Sanger was a radical and that she even worked with the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) trying to create a more "purified" stable, white-only race. They level charges of racism at Sanger because of her views on eugenics. But mostly it is a bunch of hogwash and I am sure it will play out as a bunch of hogwash.

To be frank, Sanger was just doing what she felt was right during those challenging times. Sanger worked with hundreds of community groups in the Northeast to promote her agenda and that is what we see in Dede, and advocate for liberal regulations on abortion, stem cell research, and hopefully some types of cloning so we can create economic development here again. We hope this post answers some of your questions, and thanks to all of you readers for asking them. (On a side note our former New York State Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton also accepted the same Margaret Sanger Award earlier this year in Texas soon after she was confirmed as our Secretary of State). Birds of a feather flock together. 

Dede, we are birds of the same feather, lets get together.

BILLY FUCILLO SAYS: “IT IS GUN’NA BE HUGE!!!”

HUGE MOMENTUM & NATIONAL JOURNAL RECOGNIZES OUR EFFORT

Picking up Dede Scozzafava to run on the Democratic line to replace Representative John McHugh in the NY-23^rd would be the equivalent to the Calgary Flames picking up Brett Hull in the sixth round, as the 117th overall pick of the NHL Draft. It would be really, totally HUGE, maybe even the Billy Fucillo Auto Mall kind of HUGE!!!

To bad for the Flames they traded Hull, because he never developed a good relationship with Flames coach Terry Crisp. “The Golden Brett” later went on to become a Hall-of-Famer and the third all-time leading goal scorer in NHL history. We only refer to the Flames-Hull analogy, not to rehash the Flames poor decision-making, but because: 1) something can be learned from this situation and it can be applied to the NY-23^rd, 2) hockey is awesome and the sport of choice for most reasonable souls in the district so we hope people will be able relate to said analogy, and 3) because, again, it just fits so well with the current dynamic we have been talking about in the NY-23^rd all week (and I love hockey).

So here we go – a key lesson can be learned from the Flames mistake of passing on Hull. The Flames underestimated how inexplicably HUGE Brett Hull’s career would turn out to be, and they didn’t think of him as a typical player (he was only 5’10’’) and because of their natural bias. Old Flames fans show visual signs of deep regret and remorse when they look back and realize that Hull had actually scored over 100 goals in less than 60 games in the minors. Here is a lesson that every DCCC staffer and DNC operative working on candidate recruitment should never forget – never underestimate how good some people really are until you find out more about them (it’s a common mistake in sports, life, and yes, politics).

Now that my hockey lesson is out of the way I want to follow back to the discussion of poaching Dede, the term one shame of a blog used in describing our effort, from the dying party from the South. It comes down to this –politics is about winning and we are “poaching” Scozzafava for both her own good and for ours. The funny thing is we have a natural bias against Dede because she has an R at the end of her name (she probably doesn’t even know why she has an R at the end of her name, but she always had it there so it made sense after awhile). We recognize this, but we are also open-minded and looking into the facts of the situation, looking to see where Scozzafava is on the issues. And if you get to know Dede in a personal way or a political way, as some of our team has, you learn fairly quickly that she is a very kind and compassionate woman, even going back before her time as Mayor of Gouverneur. She is truly an independent thinker with a progressive philosophy. But not only that, once you get to know Scozzafava just a little bit it is sometimes hard to remember she has an R at the end of her name when she is in Albany. That is why we like her.

From a party prospective: We smell blood and need to strike, and do it now in this special election. Elections have consequences and for the Republican Party that is going to mean it will be closing its doors for business in virtually the entire Northeast. Obama’s team has done an incredible job in taking over NY-20 this year, trying to get Senator Judd Gregg out of New Hampshire, and pushing Arlen Specter off the Republican cliff in the Keystone State. Now he has given us this opportunity in NY-23. We must follow Obama’s lead and change the way we do things, take advantage the confusion present in the situation and fill the political vacuum.

As most of you have followed the race know, there are only three Republicans with federal elective positions left from New York: Rep. Peter King from Long Island, Rep. Chris Lee from Buffalo, and Rep. John McHugh from just south of Canada. King may run for US Senate this cycle (if he does we look forward to seeing his political career end in an embarrassing 70-30% defeat). Lee was a self-financer who barely pulled off victory by the skin of his teeth. If we keep the State Senate we could always redistrict him into permanent irrelevance. We all know now that McHugh will be history in short notice and quite frankly we can use his seat to divide and conquer the GOP once and for assuming we pick the right candidate for the job, Dede Scozzafava.

So when thinking about the Flames-Hull analogy, also think of the DNC-Scozzafava connection. DNC, you want Scozzafava and you need her; please don’t lose her. The DNC and the New York Democratic Party cannot let this opportunity slide away, not when we know she would mean the death-knoll to the Republican Party, and that she would add another voice of reason to our ranks in the US Congress. Whether your motivation and desire is to see our district actually have a place on the map with a competent representative who can get things done with the party in charge, or whether you favor a liberal-progressive philosophical ideology, you cannot get any better than Dede Scozzafava. And compared to Aubertine she is better on our issues. Consider the Hotline, a national political update site, report that said, “Aubertine is a conservative Dem who is against gay marriage and is ‘well-versed’ in rural issues (he's a dairy farmer)” (Benjamin, “Daily Politics,” New York Daily News, 6/2).

From Dede’s prospective: We admit, she is going to need some more cover before this move happens. Which means we need to keep building support both politically and otherwise. We can tell you that we know Scozzafava has been considering a few things on this end according to close allies of hers. First they say that she is very, very nervous about not getting the conservative party endorsement and she thinks it could be much tougher to win the GOP nomination and then the special election without their help and endorsement. The Conservative Party makes up a hardcore base in high-intensity political battles like this one (although the county GOP & DEM leadership teams will likely determine their respective nominees behind closed doors). Still, there is probably some truth to Dede’s fear that siphoning conservative support could doom her chances.  The Hotline also reported that the possibility of the CD "disappearing" following 2012 redistricting "doesn't scare her, either.”… But the process "might break against" her, as she "supports same-sex marriage, a position that might cause" GOP officials to "balk" and would likely cost her the Conservative Party line (Vielkind, PolitickerNY, 6/2).

This line of reasoning has Scozzafava in a real tizzy because even if she were to 1) miraculously win the GOP nomination, then 2) win the special election, and then 3) survive redistricting in 2012, she would still have 4) major headaches (find more on the redistricting debate here). For one, Scozzafava would face an incredible onslaught of Republicans trying to “eat their own” moderates on the national level. The daily criticism from the hardcore fringe right both locally and nationally would take every opportunity and stop at nothing to mock Scozzafava to the point where we would all be tone deaf. For evidence look to see how Sen. Susan Collins, Sen. Olympia Snowe, former Sen. Lincoln Chaffee, and former Republican (now Democrat) Sen. Arlen Specter were treated by their party in recent times. We have also heard from Dede’s people that “she is nervous that national Republicans would try to strong arm her on their key votes, limiting her independence and conscience on votes. Does Dede really want to be a pawn of a party retreating to the South, or does she want to make a difference and vote her conscience,” which is the right thing for her to do personally and for the constituents in the 23^rd.

Hindsight is 20-20, so they say. Hindsight says the Flames should have never, ever traded what would have been their franchise player, Brett Hull. Hull was a guy who could have really put Calgary on the map, instead they missed their opportunity and sometimes you only get one shot at it. Democrats and Dede both have a choice to make with their one shot. One thing is for certain about the decisions they both will make: They are gun’na be HUUUUUUUUGGGGGE!

THE MEDIA SPIN

IF YOU READ THE NEWS YOU KNOW...

DEDE SCOZZAFAVA WOULD RUIN THE GOP IN UPSTATE NEW YORK

Several mainstream media pieces and local blogs hint at the idea that Democrats can win with a good candidate in NY-23. No kidding! They are ALL speculating that Senator Darrel Aubertine won't run for the seat due to pressure being put on him to stay in the Senate. However, that is the mainstream media talking. According to our inside information, Darrel wants to stay put in New York, not because Democrats will be able to maintain a majority in the State Senate, but because his family doesn't want him to be traveling constantly back and forth from Washington to Cape Vincent and back EVERY WEEK. Some interesting flavor is being put out by the GOP, too. Constantly downplaying their chances in NY-23, the Republican Party is in a real tizzy to say the least. 

That is why it is even more important for us to work hard and get Dede on board with our team. If we are successful, and I think we can be, Democrats will be virtually unstoppable in taking this seat (and countless future local elections). It would be a major coup for the North Country, no doubt. 

Here are the stories for your review (pay close attention to the story-line being created and think NY-20):

The Albany Project Blog Reports on the anticompetitive play to make the GOP competitive in NY-23rd, a Congressional District at a Glance by Robert Harding: "Dede Scozzafava, Will Barclay and Janet Duprey, three Republican Assembly members who are seen as potential candidates for the 23rd Congressional District seat, are all more liberal than Democratic Sen. Darrel Aubertine on social issues. Aubertine would be the obvious Democratic candidate for Congress and is considering making the race, but his colleagues in the state Senate are trying to persuade him not to run for fear that if he does and wins, they'd lose the Senate seat and with it their majority. The Republicans, coincidentally, put out a new report today on how to make their party competitive again in New York state. I have an idea for them: Offer to cross-endorse Aubertine for the congressional seat. It's the principled thing to do as far as advancing conservative policies, and the GOP needs to reassure its conservative base; Aubertine would probably beat the Republican candidate anyway; and it puts the Senate in play, laying the groundwork there for a new Republican majority in 2010."  

Think Progress' Matthew Yglesias reports: "My guess is that the main political implications here relate to redistricting. Even if a Republican wins the seat, a cloutless freshperson is going to be a very likely candidate for getting screwed-over in a redistricting process that's likely to require New York to eliminate a congressional district."  

The BooMan Tribune writes: "[NY-23 is] effectively a New England seat. It's unclear if the Republicans will be able to win a special election there to fill this vacancy. McHugh has been winning the district with over sixty-percent of the vote, but Obama took 50.33% of the vote in the November election. [...] This move by Obama has to be driving the Republicans nuts."  

The Politico's Stealth War... Barack Obama sabotages Republicans by Charles Mahtesian: "Yet it’s also hard to find a choice better calibrated to meet the Obama administration’s political imperatives. All at once, Obama has selected a nominee who burnishes his bipartisan credentials, opened up a seat prime for Democratic pickup and drained the GOP reservoir of one of the few remaining Northeastern moderates. It’s an event that’s happening with enough frequency to suggest the presence of a design, a plan that not only sketches the outline of a reelection strategy but manages to drive a wedge into the opposition at the same time. Call it a Sherman’s March in reverse — an audacious attempt by Obama to burn down any lines of escape for Republicans from their one refuge of popularity, the deep South. Since taking office in January, Obama has made an effort to convert GOP moderates in nearly every region of the country, ranging from a former Midwestern congressman, Ray LaHood, who became transportation secretary, to Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who was recently named ambassador to China.

Swing State Project's NY-23 Roundup states: "On the Democratic side, a lot of attention has been paid to Aubertine. If we had a 33 to 29 majority in the New York State Senate, it would be an easier decision. But with a 32 to 30 majority, the decision becomes a much more difficult one. Losing Aubertine could mean losing his seat, leading to a split in the Senate and a legislative nightmare... The enrollment figures for the district aren't too bad. The Republicans do have an enrollment edge over Democrats, but with the minor party lines and blanks, that edge can be erased... By comparison, NY-20 had a greater disparity between Democrats and Republicans, yet we still managed to win. If we can mobilize our base and get our voters out and find some supporters among the minor parties and blanks, we can win this. The Republicans will try to lower expectations, but on paper, they should win this race. However, if we do what we did in NY-20, we can win this. Having a solid candidate will only makes thing better for us and improve our chances in a special election."

You see the story-line. Now lets get Dede to announce as a Democrat. She is right on our issues and we will win with her. What a fresh breath of air she would be for our district in Washington.