INTERN CLAIMS SCOZZAFAVA PLEDGED TO BOLT FROM THE GOP

HOT BREAKING NEWS: 

DID DEDE PRIVATELY PLEDGE TO REPRESENTATIVE MURPHY HER INTENTION TO SWITCH PARTIES AND CAUCUS WITH THE DEMOCRATS?

Aaron Blake at the Hill reported that Dede Scozzafava recently made an impromptu encounter at Democratic Representative Scott Murphy's Congressional Office.  And according to a congressional intern in Murphy's office, Dede did end up getting ahold of Murphy after trying to catch him at the office.  According to the source, Dede was fed up with the Republican Party and the conservative right wingers.  The intern overheard a conversation between Rep. Murphy and a key legislative aide which revealed Scozzafava's intent to switch parties.  

The conversation, according to the source, was described by Murphy to be as a very aggressive appeal by Scozzafava to bolt from the GOP and switch parties if she wins.  The source continued stating, "I am 100 percent positive that Dede asked Murphy to relay a message to the DCCC: soften up key support and financial backing for Bill Owens in exchange for a promise to caucus with the Democrats if she wins the election."  No one answered Murphy's congressional office phone line when Draft Dede called to confirm the rumor this evening.

In the last several weeks Scozzafava has attended key campaign stops with national Democrats and has toyed with the idea of vying for the Working Families Party line as she has in the past in an attempt to cross-over into key Democrat constituencies.

PLATTSBURGH SHOUT OUT & OBAMA'S ROLE IN NY-23

Local Media Covers Dede's Moves & Obama Gets His Hands Into the Mix

This week Joe LoTemplio from the Plattsburgh Press Republican wrote an puff piece on Douglas Hoffman (who doesn't even live in the district).  Toward the end of their profile they got down to the nitty gritty and wrote, "There is also a grassroots effort to draft popular Republican State Assemblywoman Dierdre "Dede" Scozzafava of St. Lawrence County to run as a Democrat." These guys are a dollar late and a buck short. The paper may be a little behind the curve, but they should have reported on us over a week ago before we started making calls to key Democratic fundraisers in the district? Weird.

By the way, where was Hoffman when NY-20 was going on? If he was so interested in running for Congress why didn't he step to the plate and run in his own district in which he resides? Can anyone say political opportunism? Geez, after all this guy describes himself as "the ideal candidate." Sorry Doug, but first we don't know anything about you and neither does anyone else (you are lucky you are even getting free coverage on this blog), but since you insisted we thought someone should fill you in to tell you that the ideal candidate in NY-20 was Kristen Gillibrand (who we are also endorsing as of today for election to the NYS Senate); in NY-23 the ideal candidate is really Dede Scozzafava (even if she does run as a Republican), not you. Sorry.

In other news Mike Memoli from RealClearPolitics.com wrote a story on Obama's constant campaign activity. We couldn't help but assume the story related to NY-23 somehow and here is why. Memoli writes, "Behind the scenes, the White House political operation... [is] in regular consultation with the Senate and House campaign committees, as well as the Democratic Governors Association. Those discussions run gamut from planning events and fundraisers, recruiting candidates for upcoming races, and general political strategy. That cooperation has already played out this year in off-year races. In the special election in New York's 20th District, the White House played a strong hand in the final stretch... the president has also not been reluctant to twist some elbows in attempting to recruit candidates."

Sounds like Obama might be making some calls to the North Country to win NY-23. Does anyone know if Dede is picking up her phone and making deals?

YOU CAN DRAG A RINO TO WATER BUT YOU CAN'T MAKE HER DRINK

DeDe Won't Drink... She Won't Even Talk About Drinking...

One thing we know for certain is that Scozzafava isn't exactly proud to be a Republican. She doesn't even vote like a Republican. She won't say that she won't run as a Democrat. She might just as well attend both the Republican and Democratic County Committee interviews to see which party would make her their frontrunner. We can't say we blame her for it. We see the wisdom in it.

According to the Watertown newspaper, "Possible strong Republican contenders include Mr. Barclay and Assemblywoman Dierdre K. Scozzafava, who has been fighting rumors she is considering switching parties under pressure from organized labor, with the Obama administration playing a role in the background." 

How is DeDe fighting the rumors? Has she been public about it anywhere? All the news claims she won't give a definitive answer one way or another. 

Second, it is not hard to believe Obama and his team would be playing around in the background.  The New York Daily News broke a story today that Rahm Emanuel tried to persuade Long Island Representative Peter King an ambassadorship to Ireland.  The story went on to say Rep. King, "still has no doubt that Obama's top aide [Rahm Emanuel] would target his House seat if the opportunity arose." 

Who is to say that the White House Chief of Staff hasn't talked to big labor in New York, the DCCC, or even Scozzafava herself about the prospect of running as a Democrat.  Or maybe Emanuel just dragged a RINO to the Democratic pond, but couldn't make her drink the water. We learned today that he couldn't get King to drink our Irish whisky.

But the Mayor of Watertown also sees it another way.  According to someone who forwarded his blog to our coalition, "The prospects for Diedre Scozzafava running for Congress still appear dim to me, but a key GOP insider tells me there is still strong support for her candidacy among the country chairs in the 11 county 23rd CD. Under a weighted voting system, I am told the chairs in Oswego, Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties would carry the day.  Good news for DeDe." We agree with that mayor that Scozzafava would be a poor candidate for the Republicans to put up. Although if McHugh's replacement is Scozzafava it is, for all intents and purposes, still a victory for us because we will have her on all of our key issues from card check, to health care, to taxes, social issues, and who knows what else. 

Still, one has to wonder how it would look if DeDe were to only garner 3 of 11 GOP county chairs?  If 8 county chairs voice a strong opposition to DeDe would she even be credible within her own party to make it to the finish line this fall? Whichever party she runs with we hope she wins. [On a side note it would be interesting to see how the Oswego chair votes if Assemblyman Will Barclay decides to get in the game. That would be a nightmare for DeDe. Does anyone know if the county chairs votes will be made public?]

So what do we make of the rumors that DeDe is exploring the option of attending the Democratic meetings to test the waters? Here is what we have gathered. The DCCC has already announced that they think "the district is winnable with the right candidate... Right now our focus is on working with local Democrats to recruit a strong candidate." The language is so interesting in that quote, "winnable with the right candidate... working with local Democrats to recruit a strong candidate." 

The drum beat continues and two serious questions remain: 

1) Have the DNC, the DCCC, Rep. Steve Israel (tasked with recruiting Democratic candidates for the US House), White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, our local Democratic county chairs, local labor chambers, or even Obama himself reached out to DeDe? That might be all she is waiting for before she drinks the water. 

2) Why is Scozzafava so shy with the media about the prospect of running as a Democrat? One thing is for certain, we know Emanuel isn't afraid to drag the RINOs to their pond. Perhaps Emanuel's master strategy all along is to have it both ways. Support another Democrat to win the district, or in the event that Scozzafava wins as a Republican just twist her huff on important policy to make Obama's agenda look like it has bipartisan support. Whatever Emanuel's master plan is we support it and have full confidence in him. It's a win-win situation anyway you look at it.

THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE IS....

(enter drum roll)

Thank you to everyone who participated in our online poll!!! Isn't technology peachy? We had a lot of fun following this one.

Now for the results and analysis. When the question is asked of people, "Do you think that Republican Assemblywoman DeDe Scozzafava should run for Congress as a Democrat?" people said:

A) Yes, Run as a Democrat (65%)

B) Run as a Republican (13 %)

C) Don't Run at all (17%)

D) No preference (2%)

One interesting finding is that more people said "Don't Run at all" than said "Run as a Republican." Who knew? So with those numbers we think the rest of the analysis is left best to you, our visitors, and DeDe Scozzafava herself. Thanks again for your participation. Another poll will be up shortly. If you have any suggestions please e-mail us at draftdede@gmail.com, twitter us @draftdedeny, or leave a comment below.

POLLS CLOSING: IS THE VERDICT STILL OUT?

Poll closes in T-minus 1 hour. We won't be counting the votes until the ballot boxes are closed (unlike Florida 2000). 

Big news is coming... but to keep those of you thirsty for information here is a piece of information to digest.  According to one piece of fan mail (someone who posted on the political history of NY-23 a few days ago on the Swing State Project) "The last Democrat elected to represent St. Lawrence Co. in Congress was a man named Francis Spinner, elected in 1854. He ran successfully for re-election as a Republican in 1856 and was later appointed as Treasurer of the United States by Abraham Lincoln. It would be poetic, so to speak, if Dede, a St. Lawrence resident, were to now switch from the GOP to the Democratic Party and recapture this seat for us -- becoming the first Democrat to represent St. Lawrence in Congress in over 150 years -- from Democrat to GOP during the time of Lincoln; and from GOP back to Democrat during the time of Obama!"

INDEPENDENCE LINE GOES TO THE DEMOCRATS IN NY-23

~13K Votes for the Taking if DeDe Wants Them

The AP reported today that the “Independence Party pledges to support Democrat in possible race for McHugh's 23rd District seat.”

That was the title. It goes on, “The New York Independence Party is pledging to support a Democrat in the special election for the 23rd Congressional District long held by Republican Rep. John McHugh. Independence Party Chairman Frank MacKay tells The Associated Press his influential party will support Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine if he decides to run for the seat representing northern New York. Aubertine is considering a run if McHugh wins confirmation to become Democratic President Barack Obama's secretary of the Army. The Independence Party was important in Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy's narrow victory in a special election in March for the 20th Congressional District, another GOP-dominated Upstate district.”

First, Aubertine likely won’t run. Even if he does, DeDe is still a better Democratic candidate for multiple reasons described at great length on this blog. What this story sounds like to us is another incredible incentive for DeDe to come our way.

If you math is right that would mean almost 13K votes for DeDe right out of the gate. If she ran as a Democrat she would likely also garner supporting from the Working Family line which is close to another 6K. After being named a “non-starter” by the Conservative Party line which holds 9K votes that has to make her decision that much easier. If she runs as a moderate Republican she will surely lose, especially if a third candidate were to run on the Conservative line.

The Watertown Daily Times and some other local papers have been trolling through our site (presumable to dig up some additional research on an upcoming story). Maybe that is when we will find out that laying out the case online was worth all the trouble. However, it has been no trouble at all. We are here to help and support DeDe to make the right decision. At this point we would like to offer a toast: “To victory this fall with DeDe on the Democratic ticket.”

PS – Our public poll on the left hand column is almost finished so if you haven’t had a chance please let us know whether you think DeDe should run as a Democrat. Results will be posted tomorrow.

SCOZZAFAVA IS RADIO SILENT

That means we are gaining traction in our efforts

The folks at the Swing State Project just CRUSHED the nail on its head with a sludge-hammer when they said, "both the National Journal and PolitickerNY have both tried to get Scozzafava to verify if she's considering a party switch, and both outlets received nothing but radio silence from her camp. If she wasn't considering such a move, why wouldn't she swat down the rumors immediately?"

As if the pressure wasn't building enough we have to refer to yet the third National Journal piece in less than a week (and linked above) that states, "Scozzafava's vote for the gay marriage bill has angered some conservatives who were already dubious of her record, including NY Conservative chair Mike Long, who told us the vote is a "non-starter" for his party's endorsement. That would be a blow to any GOPer, as the Conservative line brought John McHugh (R) over 9K votes in '08. (And as we saw in neighboring NY-20, every vote counts)."

And from some of the comments in our last post we just learned that all of DeDe's money from 2000-present has come from liberal PAC's, including thousands from pro-gay and pro-choice groups, and tons of unions (thanks to her husband Ron McDougall who is the president of the local Central Labor Council). DeDe has a limited fundraising base from individual contributors who raised her around $65,000 over the last 9 years.

After our poll results are finished we are considering undertaking a telemarketing campaign to really pressure DeDe to come to our side (where her natural fundraising base is, not to mention the folks who agree with her on politically) before Rep. McHugh's Senate confirmation hearings. Check back often.