Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Scozzafava Tailspin Sends Campaign South

Second Siena Poll Out Soon... Scozzafava Campaign Contemplating Next Move

The Politico had a story today about Dede's Cash Crunch that gives us some important insight into the political dynamics of NY-23. If the Politico story is true, and we assume it is because there has been literally zero push back from Dede's camp, then we must begin to reevaluate our support for Dede for fear that Doug Hoffman may actually squeeze through a victory with a narrow 36-34% victory. The problem with Dede's campaign is really unfortunate. Of course we will know more very shortly with the details of the second Siena poll due out in just hours.

However, over the last several days we have seen the Scozzafava campaign in a serious tailspin, committing so many political fouls that it may not be possible for her to recover. Perhaps an independent streak is not enough to overcome the countless and inexcusable political errors Team Dede chalked up this week. First, there was the American Spectator story titled, "Losing it Over Scozzafava," that dropped a bombshell on the New York Republican establishment which Scozzafava failed to effectively respond. The piece stated that,
According to Republican National Committee sources, a poll on the 23rd District race paid for by the NRCC and due to be released on Monday has been withheld due to a poor showing by the Republican candidate... and an NRCC claimed the poll was being reviewed for 'margin of error issues.'
Talk about failing to bat down one of the most incredibly devastating stories of the campaign that need to be put to rest quickly. Second, Scozzafava's message got completely muddied when she received the endorsement from an unknown conservative Congressman from Texas and then in the same breath touted an endorsement from the teachers union. (By the way, what was that guy's name again and which way does Scozzafava really want it?) Does Dede want to be beholden to the right wingers in Texas or to the interests of hardworking New Yorkers? No one is sure anymore... All signs show that the Scozzafava campaign has fallen victim to political desperation when it begins taking an endorsement and talking points from the former head of the ultraconservative Republican Study Committee. Now Dede is reportedly rejecting the Senate Finance health care reform after saying she was for the reform.

A lack of campaign resources and a classic political squeeze from the left and the right have severely damaged the prospects of Republican Dede Scozzafava... While initial polling showed Scozzafava leading Democratic attorney Bill Owens and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, Owens has caught Scozzafava in recent private polling, and Hoffman continues to gain strength, making him a considerable factor in the contest and a growing problem for Scozzafava down the stretch. GOP insiders have grown extremely nervous about the race. They worry about Scozzafava's poor fundraising, lack of a compelling message to Republican base voters and weak polling in the crucial Syracuse media market, which makes up about 30 percent of the sprawling district.
Then there was this follow-up piece, "RINO on the Run," by Robert Stacy McCain that invited the argument that maybe Hoffman has the momentum to shake this race out with a narrow victory given the near parallel positions between Owens and Scozzafava.

With that said, we are looking forward to the numbers and may have to reevaluate what is best for our district given these new circumstances. It looks like Dede may be over before we even see her final fundraising numbers.